LOL - is that a serious question? First off, none of the numbers change enough to make statistically significant difference in my argument regardless of the combinations used for the employment and EDR number over the last three years. But specifically, if I were to use 2023 trends in employment along with the relatively unchanged expected death rate, my argument gets stronger. If I use 2021 actual death rate in the age group with actual employment numbers, my argument gets stronger. This is also true if I use 2022 numbers throughout. By choosing the combination that I did I present the most conservative case. LOL

(Written on 08/18/2023)(Permalink)

Let’s work the problem with verifiable information. Since KK is using seemingly global data (i.e., two data points out of 4 are flights that have no US legs) I will ask for your indulgence when I use US data to formulate a hypothesis and check it. US labor statistics, death rate by age, flight operations per day, etc. are reliable and available. The assumptions made below will deliver the most conservative estimates since I am excluding some numbers. For example, no cargo flights seem to be noted in KK’s data, so I am just using passenger pilots only. Also, I am assuming the pilots in the last two entries expired even though it describes the incident as “collapses” which does not necessary imply death. Hypothesis: The death rate amongst commercial pilots aged 45 to 54 years is greater than that of the population (regardless of cause of death). Analysis: According to the Depart of Labor statistics, in 2021, there were 135,300 “pilots” commercially employed, of which airline p

(Written on 08/18/2023)(Permalink)

Really cool! For anyone interested, here is a link to the Delta website page that provides more detail on their mission https://news.delta.com/history-made-delta-pilots-go-guinness-world-record , and to the crew's webpage, https://48n48.org , that has links so you can donate to the Veterans' Airlift Command as well as a detailed route map. Well done Captains Barry Behnfeldt, Aaron Wilson, and in-flight technician Thomas Twiddy!

(Written on 07/14/2023)(Permalink)

LOL. I had the same thought!

(Written on 06/16/2023)(Permalink)

Thanks! Both the article and your "translation" helped me better understand some of the AI/ML stuff happening right around me. I appreciate you taking time to help those not close to the technology better understand the state-of-the-art of this important field.

(Written on 06/10/2023)(Permalink)

Under French «judiciary order (l'ordre judiciaire)» law plaintiffs can petition a public prosecutor to bring a case, such as this one, that contains both criminal as well a civil complaints. The test for murder (manslaughter in this case) is not dissimilar to US law, and the ruling in this phase was there wasn't enough evidence to meet the test (similar to the US "reasonable doubt" test with motive, intent, malice, opportunity, etc. satisfied). However the judge ruled that there was enough evidence (similar to the US "preponderance of evidence" test in civil cases) to conclude civil liability. The next phase is to calculate the damages due to the plaintiffs. So this isn't finished yet. Although the plaintiffs don't get a criminal prosecution they sought, they will still have the two defendants held liable in the civil action. No big conspiracy here.

(Written on 04/21/2023)(Permalink)

Some cool numbers: At +65,000 feet MSL, the speed of sound is about 300 meters/second. If fuel capacity is not limiting for this exercise, traveling at hypersonic speeds (usually considered Mach 5 or above) at that altitude you would cover about 15 football fields per second. You would cover the air distance of Boston to San Francisco in about 48 minutes. Half that time at the max speed in Top Gun: Maverick (before the flight was cut short). Pretty cool.

(Written on 03/17/2023)(Permalink)

I can't remember when it was, but I had a similar experience with the captain of a 737 on a Boston to O'Hare flight. He really put a lot of effort into the narrative. I thanked him as I disembarked in Chicago. I had always hoped others had listened and done the same. Thanks for helping bring this semi-forgotten memory out of my archival storage!

(Written on 03/17/2023)(Permalink)

I'm not sure the safe action program applies in this case. The issue was a violation of some controller's instruction, with the violation detected by the controller in real-time (with some automated systems), and corrected by the controller in real-time (telling Delta to stop their TO roll), not in the realm of voluntary reporting of an undetected incident. This seems to be in the NTSB's jurisdiction for investigation. Besides, the NTSB only provides recommendations. It has no legal authority to impose those recommendations. Their probable cause opinions are inadmissible in court or other legal proceedings under the Federal Aviation Act, which make reluctance to be recorded a bit puzzling, unless their employer uses the incident against them.

(Written on 02/17/2023)(Permalink)

Actually it is exactly about seizing private assets. There have been seizures of everything from luxury megayachts to private planes, to bank accounts. Assets have even be seized in Switzerland - and that has never happened. If there is no reconciliation on the part of the sanctioned, these assets belong to the government imposing the sanctions.

(Written on 03/11/2022)(Permalink)